기존 방문객 조회, 전년도 데이터 비교, 예상 방문객 계산

lib/weekly_visitor_forecast_prophet.py

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+#weekly_visitor_forecast_prophet.py
+import os, sys
+import re, requests
+from sqlalchemy import select, and_, func
+from sqlalchemy.orm import Session
+from prophet import Prophet
+from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA
+from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta
+
+# 경로 설정: 프로젝트 루트 conf 폴더 내 db 및 스키마 모듈 임포트
+sys.path.append(os.path.abspath(os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), '..')))
+from conf import db, db_schema
+from weather_forecast import get_weekly_precip  # 변경된 날씨 예보 함수 임포트
+from lib.holiday import is_korean_holiday  # holiday.py의 DB 기반 휴일 판단 함수
+from lib.common import load_config
+
+# DB 테이블 객체 초기화
+pos = db_schema.pos
+ga4 = db_schema.ga4_by_date
+weather = db_schema.weather
+air = db_schema.air
+
+config = load_config()
+serviceKey = config['DATA_API']['serviceKey']
+VISITOR_CA = tuple(config['POS']['VISITOR_CA'])
+
+
+
+# --- 데이터 로딩 및 전처리 ---
+
+def get_date_range(start_date, end_date):
+    return pd.date_range(start_date, end_date).to_pydatetime().tolist()
+
+def add_korean_holiday_feature(df):
+    df['is_holiday'] = df['date'].apply(lambda d: 1 if is_korean_holiday(d.date()) else 0)
+    return df
+
+def fix_zero_visitors_weighted(df):
+    df = df.copy()
+    if 'date' not in df.columns and 'ds' in df.columns:
+        df['date'] = df['ds']
+    if 'pos_qty' not in df.columns and 'y' in df.columns:
+        df['pos_qty'] = df['y']
+    if 'is_holiday' not in df.columns:
+        raise ValueError("DataFrame에 'is_holiday' 컬럼이 필요합니다.")
+    df['year_month'] = df['date'].dt.strftime('%Y-%m')
+    monthly_means = df[df['pos_qty'] > 0].groupby(['year_month', 'is_holiday'])['pos_qty'].mean()
+    arr = df['pos_qty'].values.copy()
+    for i in range(len(arr)):
+        if arr[i] == 0:
+            ym = df.iloc[i]['year_month']
+            holiday_flag = df.iloc[i]['is_holiday']
+            mean_val = monthly_means.get((ym, holiday_flag), np.nan)
+            arr[i] = 0 if np.isnan(mean_val) else mean_val
+    df['pos_qty'] = arr
+    if 'y' in df.columns:
+        df['y'] = df['pos_qty']
+    df.drop(columns=['year_month'], inplace=True)
+    return df
+
+def load_data(session, start_date, end_date):
+    dates = get_date_range(start_date, end_date)
+    stmt_pos = select(
+        pos.c.date,
+        func.sum(pos.c.qty).label('pos_qty')
+    ).where(
+        and_(
+            pos.c.date >= start_date,
+            pos.c.date <= end_date,
+            pos.c.ca01 == '매표소',
+            pos.c.ca03.in_(VISITOR_CA)
+        )
+    ).group_by(pos.c.date)
+    pos_data = {row.date: row.pos_qty for row in session.execute(stmt_pos).fetchall()}
+
+    stmt_ga4 = select(ga4.c.date, ga4.c.activeUsers).where(
+        and_(ga4.c.date >= start_date, ga4.c.date <= end_date)
+    )
+    ga4_data = {row.date: row.activeUsers for row in session.execute(stmt_ga4).fetchall()}
+
+    stmt_weather = select(
+        weather.c.date,
+        weather.c.minTa,
+        weather.c.maxTa,
+        weather.c.sumRn,
+        weather.c.avgRhm
+    ).where(
+        and_(
+            weather.c.date >= start_date,
+            weather.c.date <= end_date,
+            weather.c.stnId == 99
+        )
+    )
+    weather_data = {row.date: row for row in session.execute(stmt_weather).fetchall()}
+
+    stmt_air = select(air.c.date, air.c.pm25).where(
+        and_(
+            air.c.date >= start_date,
+            air.c.date <= end_date,
+            air.c.station == '운정'
+        )
+    )
+    air_data = {row.date: row.pm25 for row in session.execute(stmt_air).fetchall()}
+
+    records = []
+    for d in dates:
+        key = d.date() if isinstance(d, datetime) else d
+        record = {
+            'date': d,
+            'pos_qty': pos_data.get(key, 0),
+            'activeUsers': ga4_data.get(key, 0),
+            'minTa': getattr(weather_data.get(key), 'minTa', 0) if weather_data.get(key) else 0,
+            'maxTa': getattr(weather_data.get(key), 'maxTa', 0) if weather_data.get(key) else 0,
+            'sumRn': getattr(weather_data.get(key), 'sumRn', 0) if weather_data.get(key) else 0,
+            'avgRhm': getattr(weather_data.get(key), 'avgRhm', 0) if weather_data.get(key) else 0,
+            'pm25': air_data.get(key, 0)
+        }
+        records.append(record)
+
+    df = pd.DataFrame(records)
+    df = add_korean_holiday_feature(df)
+    df = fix_zero_visitors_weighted(df)
+    df['weekday'] = df['date'].dt.weekday
+    return df
+
+def prepare_prophet_df(df):
+    prophet_df = pd.DataFrame({
+        'ds': df['date'],
+        'y': df['pos_qty'].astype(float),
+        'minTa': df['minTa'].astype(float),
+        'maxTa': df['maxTa'].astype(float),
+        'sumRn': df['sumRn'].astype(float),
+        'avgRhm': df['avgRhm'].astype(float),
+        'pm25': df['pm25'].astype(float),
+        'is_holiday': df['is_holiday'].astype(int)
+    })
+    return prophet_df
+
+def train_and_predict_prophet(prophet_df, forecast_days=7):
+    prophet_df = fix_zero_visitors_weighted(prophet_df)
+    prophet_df.fillna({
+        'minTa': 0,
+        'maxTa': 0,
+        'sumRn': 0,
+        'avgRhm': 0,
+        'pm25': 0,
+        'is_holiday': 0
+    }, inplace=True)
+
+    m = Prophet(weekly_seasonality=True, yearly_seasonality=True, daily_seasonality=False)
+    m.add_regressor('minTa')
+    m.add_regressor('maxTa')
+    m.add_regressor('sumRn')
+    m.add_regressor('avgRhm')
+    m.add_regressor('pm25')
+    m.add_regressor('is_holiday')
+
+    m.fit(prophet_df)
+    future = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=forecast_days)
+    future_dates = future['ds'].dt.strftime('%Y%m%d').tolist()
+
+    weekly_precip = get_weekly_precip(serviceKey)  # {'YYYYMMDD': {'sumRn': x, 'minTa': y, 'maxTa': z, 'avgRhm': w}, ...}
+
+    # 미래 데이터에 강수량 및 기온/습도 반영
+    sumRn_list = []
+    minTa_list = []
+    maxTa_list = []
+    avgRhm_list = []
+    for dt_str in future_dates:
+        day_forecast = weekly_precip.get(dt_str, None)
+        if day_forecast:
+            sumRn_list.append(float(day_forecast.get('sumRn', 0)))
+            minTa_list.append(float(day_forecast.get('minTa', 0)))
+            maxTa_list.append(float(day_forecast.get('maxTa', 0)))
+            avgRhm_list.append(float(day_forecast.get('avgRhm', 0)))
+        else:
+            sumRn_list.append(0)
+            minTa_list.append(0)
+            maxTa_list.append(0)
+            avgRhm_list.append(0)
+
+    future['sumRn'] = sumRn_list
+    future['minTa'] = minTa_list
+    future['maxTa'] = maxTa_list
+    future['avgRhm'] = avgRhm_list
+
+    # pm25는 과거 마지막 데이터 복사
+    last_known = prophet_df.iloc[-1]
+    future['pm25'] = last_known['pm25']
+
+    # is_holiday 계산
+    future['is_holiday'] = future['ds'].apply(lambda d: 1 if is_korean_holiday(d.date()) else 0)
+
+    forecast = m.predict(future)
+
+    # 예측 결과 저장
+    output_path = os.path.abspath(os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), '..', 'data', 'prophet_result.csv'))
+    os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(output_path), exist_ok=True)
+
+    df_to_save = forecast[['ds', 'yhat']].copy()
+    df_to_save.columns = ['date', 'visitor_forecast']
+    df_to_save['date'] = df_to_save['date'].dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+
+    # 오늘 날짜 이후 데이터만 필터링
+    today_str = date.today().strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+    df_to_save = df_to_save[df_to_save['date'] >= today_str]
+
+    # visitor_forecast를 정수로 변환
+    df_to_save['visitor_forecast'] = df_to_save['visitor_forecast'].round().astype(int)
+
+    df_to_save.to_csv(output_path, index=False)
+
+    return forecast
+
+def train_and_predict_arima(ts, forecast_days=7):
+    model = ARIMA(ts, order=(5,1,0))
+    model_fit = model.fit()
+    forecast = model_fit.forecast(steps=forecast_days)
+    return forecast
+
+def train_and_predict_rf(df, forecast_days=7):
+    from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
+    df = df.copy()
+    df['weekday'] = df['date'].dt.weekday
+    X = df[['weekday', 'minTa', 'maxTa', 'sumRn', 'avgRhm', 'pm25']]
+    y = df['pos_qty']
+    model = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)
+    model.fit(X, y)
+    future_dates = pd.date_range(df['date'].max() + timedelta(days=1), periods=forecast_days)
+    future_df = pd.DataFrame({
+        'date': future_dates,
+        'weekday': future_dates.weekday,
+        'minTa': 0,
+        'maxTa': 0,
+        'sumRn': 0,
+        'avgRhm': 0,
+        'pm25': 0
+    })
+    future_df['pos_qty'] = model.predict(future_df[['weekday', 'minTa', 'maxTa', 'sumRn', 'avgRhm', 'pm25']])
+    return future_df
+
+def main():
+    today = datetime.today().date()
+    start_date = today - timedelta(days=365)
+    end_date = today
+
+    with Session(db.engine) as session:
+        df = load_data(session, start_date, end_date)
+
+    prophet_df = prepare_prophet_df(df)
+    forecast_days = 7
+
+    forecast = train_and_predict_prophet(prophet_df, forecast_days)
+
+    # 예측 후 정수 변환
+    forecast['yhat'] = forecast['yhat'].round().astype(int)
+    forecast['yhat_lower'] = forecast['yhat_lower'].round().astype(int)
+    forecast['yhat_upper'] = forecast['yhat_upper'].round().astype(int)
+
+    # 강수량 정보 포함 출력 (오늘 이후는 날씨 예보 데이터로 덮음)
+    weekly_precip = get_weekly_precip(serviceKey)
+
+    # 최근 10일 예측 결과 출력
+    output_df = forecast[['ds', 'yhat', 'yhat_lower', 'yhat_upper']].tail(10).copy()
+    output_df.columns = ['날짜', '예상 방문객', '하한', '상한']
+
+    print("이번 주 강수 예보:")
+    for dt_str, val in weekly_precip.items():
+        print(f"{dt_str}: 강수량={val['sumRn']:.1f}mm, 최저기온={val['minTa']}, 최고기온={val['maxTa']}, 습도={val['avgRhm']:.1f}%")
+
+    print("\n예측 방문객:")
+    print(output_df.to_string(index=False))
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    main()